It is what it is....

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Peering at the edge and the role of the P2P

Here are some reasons why I am leaning that way:

1. Ubiquity in access and Choice. Everyone, everwhere on the planet and perhaps elsewhere will eventually have the ability to choose who their isp is and how they connect to their isp. ISP is defined as a company who sells transit. How they connect is defined as the last mile and example are hfc(cable), fiber, copper(DSL), wireless(wifi, wimax, satellite, whatever)

2. Networks are only as good as the networks they connect to. The whole point of p2p was to improve performance and save costs, at least that is my impression of how p2p's position themselves commercially. p2p technology works best when the 'sharing' happens locally, as in the same town, region, neighborhood because the data doesn't have to encounter so many hops along its way from one peer to the next.

3. Last mile service providers don't connect with one another. This is stupid on their part! Example: I'm on comcast and my neighbor uses pacbell dsl. I just downloaded the maverics surfing competition video which i got by seeing it in my koniki client. I watch it and move on but it is still on my computer and kontiki is still running in share mode. My next door neighbor fires up his kontiki client and he too sees the link for the surf comp and clicks it. Does my neighbor get that file that is sitting on my machine or does he get it from some other location on the net? That depends on different factors but chances are it isn't coming from my pc. Stupid because this isn't efficient and when services aren't efficient they will be driven to the ground sooner rather than later. It wouldn't be efficient for my neighbor to get to my pc vs some other node on his isp's upstream provider(for example sake pac bell, sbc and att and all separate companies) even though he can see my pc from his home office window because in order to do so it is going to cost pac bell money, it is going to cost comcast money, and it is going to cost the surfin website company money and its going to take a shit load longer and have no QoS. That little request for the video i just watched, should it have to come from my pc to my neighbors, would have the itinerary below:

neighbors pc to pac bell Central office to pac bell regional hub to upstream provider to some public peering switch to Level3(comcast upstream provider) to Comcast regional datacenter to headend to neighborhood node and finally down to my pc. and then head back(next door to me) in some similar fashion....I think there is another hop between the node and headend too so it's even longer has more potential points of failure.

For this reason, it would make sense to move the peering to the edge and the p2p networks are a potentially more efficient way to peer than what is currently done. This could take place in or at the CO level or Headend level by merely interconnecting the two and running bgp or some other protocol that accomplishes the same thing. In this example, it would save comcast money that they pay to L3 for their upstream connectivity, it would save PacBell money that they pay to uunet for upstream, it would save the peering provider money because the router would consume less power and generate less heat and not be taxed by the demand of the reques. ie, it's more efficient. The old school telco boys with their closed networks and fear of new techonologies and competition are slowly but surely retiring and moving on because they've been at it for 30+ years and they have better things to do like play golf and play golf again. Backfilling for them are leaders from the IP generation and their mindset is more progressive, they understand the layer one is always going to be layer one and that it is a commodity. As such, they aren't as concerned with keeping it closed at the local level as their predecessors once were. They see the value and understand the threat of not opening it up. Its better to get something than go out of business right? They're keenly aware that their incumbant status could be a liability on several fronts including net neutrality supporters stirring up the pot and filing lawsuits, new technologies emerging which are more efficient and have low barriers to market entry and they still owe a shit load of money to pay back the banks for paying for all that fiber so they wise up and collectively develop a plan to have some arbitrator transfer packets amongst themselves. The arbitrator has to be a neutral third party to avoid any conflicts of interest between the networks and has to have deep reach into the networks users hardware and obviously know what they are doing from a technical perspective.

A couple p2p providers, specifically kontiki, are in a great position to jump on this. It's no wonder they were purchased by Verisign!

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Friday, January 12, 2007

The Global Village

As Marshall McCluhan predicted way back when there was no world wide web, communications will pave the way for a true Global Village. It is happening right now and we get to be a part of it!!

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jan2007/gb20070111_826128.htm?chan=tc&chan=technology_technology+index+page_more+of+today%27s+top+stories
Big deal? Indeed it is. It levels the playing field and blurs the line between the have's and have not's. It is the foundation for a global economy based on free trade of information and services. The three class system we know today will evolve to some degree by seeing the middle class swell to include 99% of the worlds population. Sounds like communism in its purest form. Never thought the internet would turn you to a commie, did ya?

It is too bad all those morons trying to block free wifi in metro city locales(SF!!!!!) can't pull their heads out of their asses long enough to learn the benefits of connecting people.

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Hey Barry, Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Barry Bonds is insane. At least by definition. He does the same thing over and over again yet expects a different result. Guess what Barry, the only thing that should be changing is your locale. If MLB owners, players, coaches, and fans want justice they should hope that no team signs Bonds, rendering his pursuit of Aaron's record cut short all because of his self centeredness.

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Wednesday, January 10, 2007

It's true, what goes around does come around!

I wouldn't go putting the kids education fund into MSFT now or anytime soon. Aside from being a great example of karma and adding a validity to the saying, 'what goes around comes around', I wouldn't do so for several other reasons, all of them SV companies. GOOG, CRM, EBAY, AAPL, Sling.

Google because they are building out the infrastructure to support a true distributed computing grid that is device agnostic. Devices won't require on OS from MSFT which renders them much less powerful than was the case with the last 20 years of the PC evolution. Distributed grid that will support free access to anyone, anywhere, at anytime. Think about that, it is power beyond comprehension.

CRM - Salesforce.com mainly because with their APEX, they are building the next generation platform for global trade of goods and services. With the global ubiquity in access, the flow of information which may have been impossible in recent history is suddendly happening in real time. With access to information, people gain knowledge and with knowledge they become marketable. When something is marketable it has value. You get the point?

Ebay - PayPal was the purchase of the century for ebay. While they(eBay) too have the ability to be the commerce platform of the future global economy, their bigger opportunity is to be the arbitrator of financial transactions akin to a sort of clearing house for electronic units of value. They're already doing this to some degree and they've got a hell of a head start on anyone else by virtue of their current business.

AAPL - iPod was great for them. iPhone will blow the doors off iPod's results. Finally, it has arrived. Apple just delivered the equivalent of what Segway was hyped up to deliver.

Sling Media - As long as the networks as we know them today are in existence, there will be a high degree of value placed on circumventing the detributes of broadcast. Slingbox does just that and as ubiquity in broadband access gets closer to equilibrium, the value of the service to each user and of the user to Sling grow at increasing rates.

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Volvo station wagons

Is there some secret club for owners of Volvo station wagons that I'm unaware of? Or in Sweden are the automobiles not allowed to go faster than 55mph while driving in the lane furthest to the left? Known as the fastlane or passing lane to most. Known as the a.) I'm going to slow these gas burning, pro business, right wing, fast driving teenagers and adults who may be in a hurry down, b.) I just vaporized my medication and now 49mph seems like out of control, everything is happening so fast, and c.) Mondale/Ferraro bumperstickers are blocking the driver from seeing out the back window and they don't realize there are 15 cars behind them and they've indirectly caused three accidents lane to drivers of Volvo station wagons